Weekend’s Best Bets 11/14-11/18

I took a week off last week and based on my results I should probably take weeks off more often. There is no article but I do have a Fanduel account to prove that I correctly predicted Minnesota, LSU, and Appalachian State wins last week for my NCAA bets. I also was too busy losing a three game series in slow-pitch softball last Sunday to make any NFL bets. I will not be adding my results from last week to my overall record as I did not write an article but take my word that it was my best performance in weeks for college football. Call me superstitious but now that I am writing an article for best bets, I don’t plan on having the same performance.

College Football

Nov 9, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers linebacker Mariano Sori-Marin (55) reacts after making a tackle to force a fourth down in the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week: 3-2

Overall: 7-13

Florida @ Missouri 11/16 12:00 PM EST

Florida -7

Florida’s two losses this season have come from two top five teams in Georgia and LSU, the latter being in Baton Rouge. They are coming off of a dominant 56-0 win against Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida seems to be one of the better two loss teams in the country and I expect them to carry over their efforts from last week. Gators win by two touchdowns.

Indiana @ Penn State 11/16 12:00 PM EST

Penn State -14.5

Penn State’s loss last week wasn’t as much bad Penn State as it was good Minnesota. The Golden Gophers played the game of their lives last weekend and Penn State is going to want to bounce back and put their name back into the playoff conversation. What better way to get back on track than a blowout win against Indiana? The Nittany Lions will emphasize ball security after last week, not giving the Hoosiers many chances to score.

Georgia @ Auburn 11/16 3:30 PM EST

Georgia -2.5

It’s time for the Bulldogs to put their foot on the gas and cruise to the SEC Championship game. If not for their slip-up against South Carolina, we could potentially be talking about the 2nd ranked team in the nation because of their two top 10 wins against Ohio State’s zero top 10 wins. True freshman Bo Nix has struggled against top defenses and this will be the best defense he has faced in his young career. He won’t be able to handle Georgia in this one down the stretch and that will be the difference maker.

Minnesota @ Iowa 11/16 4:00 PM EST

Minnesota +140

The Golden Gophers are in a classic letdown spot after upsetting Penn State last week. But if there’s anything we learned last week it’s that Minnesota loves being the underdog. Vegas is not given them any respect. Last week they were 6.5 point underdogs as an undefeated team at home. Now they are 3 point underdogs on the road against an Iowa team that is averaging less than 3 yards per carry. Iowa can’t score, they only put up 30 points against Rutgers at home and Rutgers is getting 53 points against Ohio State this week. Minnesota can score in bunches and QB Tanner Morgan shines in big moments. Minnesota wins this one outright.

Oklahoma @ Baylor 11/16 7:30 PM EST

Baylor +10

We’ve seen what happens when undefeated teams are home underdogs. I’ve been doing nothing but praising Minnesota in this article but they are the perfect example as to why this spread is too big. I imagine it will go down to at least 7.5 by Saturday so grab the points while you can. The Sooners defense has been horrendous the last two weeks surrendering 48 and 41 points respectively. The only way for them to cover this spread is if they make zero mistakes on offense.

NFL

Oct 31, 2019; Glendale, AZ, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (17) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week: 2-3

Overall: 15-5-1

Steelers @ Browns 11/14 8:20 PM EST

Steelers +125

The Steelers are 5-1 in their last 6 games with their only loss coming in overtime against the Ravens. This defense has turned a corner and don’t seem to be looking back. Meanwhile, the Browns could easily be 2-7 after the Bills missed two field goals last week and although they have not turned the ball over in two weeks, Pittsburgh’s defense could torment Baker Mayfield in this one. James Conner is also returning from his shoulder injury tonight so I like the Steelers to take this one despite being a road team on a short week.

Cardinals @ 49ers 11/17 4:05 PM EST

Cardinals +10.5

There’s a chance the Niners are without both Kittle and Sanders in this one giving them limited options in the passing game coming off a short week. These teams also played two weeks ago and the game was decided by only 3 points. The Cardinals have also shown the ability to score in bunches so I like Arizona against a probably depleted Niners offense.

Patriots @ Eagles 11/17 4:25 PM EST

Patriots -3.5

Both teams are coming off a bye but the Patriots are coming off a loss which is bad news for the Eagles. Since 2005, the Patriots are 36-16 ATS after a loss and I don’t expect this bad Eagles secondary to keep New England’s receivers in check. Against Baltimore, Mohamed Sanu had 10 receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown and the more time he spends with Tom Brady, the better he’s going to get. I’m expecting a career day out of Sanu as the Patriots throw all over this poor secondary.

Bills @ Dolphins 11/17 1:00 PM EST

Dolphins +6

I’d like to start off by saying that all the Bills believers out there might have to pump the brakes for at least one more year. They clearly struggle on offense and at this point in the season only one of their opponents is currently over .500. This is a team that isn’t as good as their record and now they have to go on the road against a Dolphins team with a 5-0 ATS streak. The last time these two teams played, the Bills had an onside kick recovered for a touchdown allowing them to win by 10 rather than 3. Miami has a chance to win their third game in a row against a team that’s 26th in points per drive.

Bengals @ Raiders 11/17 4:25 PM EST

Raiders -10.5

The Bengals are easily the worst team in the NFL while Jon Gruden has the Raiders in the playoff hunt. The Bengals are allowing 6.7 yards per play while rookie RB Josh Jacobs is getting better by the week. Cincinnati’s offensive line is almost non-existent which doesn’t fare well for rookie QB Ryan Finley, who I think could be decent given protection and the right players around him. Jon Gruden will continue to build his case for Coach of the Year with a blowout win in this game.

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