Weekend’s Best Bets 10/24-10/28

Last week was another up and down week for me as I only got out of Saturday’s college games with one win while I went undefeated with one push for my six NFL picks. Despite my recent performance in college football, I am still going to try to bounce back and provide picks although you would be better off taking the opposite of what I pick. I’ll look to keep my streak going for NFL games this week.

College Football

Sep 15, 2018; Auburn, AL, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow (9) carries against the Auburn Tigers during the first quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week: 1-4

Overall: 2-8

SMU @ Houston 10/24 7:30 PM EST

SMU -14

The Mustangs head to Houston on a short week and are hosted by a team who barely beat a bad UConn time last week. SMU’s high powered offense has scored over 40 points in every game this season except for the first game of the season while the Cougars have surrendered over 30 points in every game this season except for their game against UConn last week. Houston’s defense will not be able to contain SMU’s offense leading to a potential blowout.

Auburn @ LSU 10/26 3:30 PM EST

LSU – 10.5

I am not a believer in Auburn’s freshman quarterback, Bo Nix. He goes through stretches in big games where it is apparent that he cannot lead an offense. It happened against Oregon, it happened against Texas A&M, and it happened against Florida. If that happens against LSU then that’s bad news for Auburn. LSU is rolling with their best offense in program history with Heisman co-favorite Joe Burrow leading the way. I like LSU to win by two touchdowns.

Appalachian State @ South Alabama 10/26 12:00 PM EST

Appalachian State -26

The story of Appalachian State is a fun one. They were one of the best, if not the best, FCS team of all time, winning over 550 games, three straight championships from 2005 to 2007, and making the FCS playoffs 20 times. In 2013, they transitioned to the FBS level and have dominated the Sun Belt Conference ever since, winning four straight bowl games and finishing three straight seasons with 10 or more wins. They are currently undefeated and ranked 21st in the country. Now with that kind of background, Appalachian State doesn’t belong on the same field as a team as bad as South Alabama. The Mountaineers win in a blowout.

Texas @ TCU 10/26 3:30 PM EST

Over 58.5

After squeezing out a win against Kansas, the Longhorns seem like a team that has to score at least 40 points to win a game because of their historically bad defense. They have gained at least 427 yards of offense in every game but one this season and while the Horned Frogs haven’t had an explosive offense this past month, I expect them to score at least 30 against this bad Texas defense. I actually think that 58.5 is an exceptionally low total for this shootout.

Texas Tech @ Kansas 10/26 7:00 PM EST

Texas Tech -3.5

Kansas has had two offensive explosions this year. One against Boston College and one last week against Texas. After their 48 points against Boston College, they only scored 24 the next week against West Virginia at home. I expect a similar situation against the Red Raiders. It is difficult to predict which Texas Tech team will show up in Lawrence but I think we’ll see the team that can put up 40+ points and I can’t say the same for Kansas.

NFL

Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos center Matt Paradis (61) lines up across from Indianapolis Colts nose tackle David Parry (54) in the first half at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week: 5-0-1

Overall: 9-1-1

Redskins @ Vikings 10/24 8:20 PM EST

Redskins +17

The Redskins have hit the under in four straight games while the line for this game is 42 points. I am by no means saying the Redskins have any shot at winning but the over/under is entirely too low for this spread. Interim head coach, Bill Callahan, has shifted Washington’s offense to be run-first putting the ball in Adrian Peterson’s hands more often which will decrease the amount of scoring opportunities. The Vikings will also be without Adam Thielen which will make it even more difficult for them to cover the spread.

Broncos @ Colts 10/27 1:00 PM EST

Colts -5.5

There is a possibility that the Colts have their entire starting defense in tact for the first time all season this week. That combined with the fact that the Broncos just traded their number one receiver in Emmanuel Sanders means the Colts are looking at a juicy matchup. I don’t expect Denver to score more than 10 points in this one while the Colts dominate on both sides of the ball.

Browns @ Patriots 10/27 4:25 PM EST

Under 46

The league leader in interceptions thrown meets the team that leads the league in interceptions. Sounds like a disaster for Baker Mayfield. The only thing bettors should be wary of is if New England scores any more defensive touchdowns which would allow this game to hit the over. Nonetheless, Mayfield doesn’t stand a chance against this historic defense and the Patriots will hit the under once again as they have done nearly every week.

Giants @ Lions 10/27 1:00 PM EST

Giants +6.5

The Lions lead the league in fumbles recovered while the Giants are second to last in fumbles lost so the Lions should not expect to dominate the turnover battle in this one. The Lions run defense has been very bad this year, giving up at least 110 yards in every game this season so Saquon Barkley should have a fun day. The Lions also experienced two key losses this past week with Kerryon Johnson going down with an injury and Quandre Diggs headed to Seattle via trade. The Giants have a good chance at covering this week.

Seahawks @ Falcons 10/27 1:00 PM EST

Seahawks -3.5

The Seahawks have needed everything to go right for them to get 4 of their 5 wins so I understand this spread. However, the Falcons are clearly one of the worst teams in the league with a defense who has given up the second most points per game and the most total points this season. The Seahawks will do enough in this one to win by at least a touchdown.

NBA

Credit: sfchronicle.com

Clippers @ Warriors 10/24 10:30 PM EST

Clippers -1.5

I had to squeeze in a basketball bet to commemorate the beginning the the NBA season. The Clippers just beat the Lakers by 10 who are a much better team than the Warriors. I expect the Clippers to spoil the Warriors’ first game in the new Chase Center in San Francisco. The Warriors currently have gaping holes at the wing after losing Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson and they near the bottom of the list for every defensive category. This one might not even be close.

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