Weekend’s Best Bets 10/17-10/21

Last week was a roller coaster for me when I went down six units on Saturday with my college football bets then hit all but one of my NFL bets to go up one unit on the weekend. I’ll try to keep it going with the NFL bets while I’ll try to turn it around with my NCAA bets (although, I went 8 for 9 on NCAA bets two weeks ago but didn’t post an article.)

Sep 7, 2019; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields (1) celebrates his first quarter touchdown against the Cincinnati Bearcats with offensive lineman Wyatt Davis (52) and Jonah Jackson (73) and Thayer Munford (75) at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

College Football

Record: 1-4

UCLA @ Stanford 10/17 9:00 PM EST

Stanford -3.5

Stanford were considered to be 9.5 point favorites on Monday, then 7 point favorites yesterday, now the line is down to 3.5 points. Normally a line change this drastic would scare me off but I can’t deny the value here. I’m assuming this change comes from the announcement that Stanford will start their third string quarterback but their defense is healthy and their defense won them the game against a good Washington team. The Bruins are also surrendering over 500 YPG to go along with 37.7 PPG so I don’t think it matters who’s at quarterback for their opponents.

Toledo @ Ball State 10/19 2:00 PM EST

Toledo -1

Toledo opened as a one point underdog in this game then the line changed to make them one point road favorites. Toledo has had the upper hand in this matchup as they have beat Ball State five times in a row with each win coming by double digits.

Houston @ Connecticut 10/19 12:00 PM EST

Houston -22

I made the mistake of thinking UConn could cover a 34 point spread last week against Tulane and they lost 49-7. In my defense, 34 is a lot of points for a conference game. It’s not like UConn is an FCS team, but they might as well be. Even against a weak Houston team, the Huskies are even weaker. Houston easily wins this game.

Ohio State @ Northwestern

Northwestern +28

Ohio State has to get through this week against Northwestern before playing No. 6 Wisconsin next Saturday in Columbus. The Buckeyes should easily get bast Northwestern but with the Big Ten Game of the Year happening just a week after this game, I expect them to rest their starters midway through the third quarter to avoid any potential injuries. This gives the Wildcats a decent chance of covering this spread.

Florida @ South Carolina 10/19 12:00 PM EST

Florida -6

While the Gamecocks did defeat Georgia last week, they are in a prime spot for a letdown game. Florida’s offense actually looked very good against LSU led by their quarterback Kyle Trask. South Carolina will get their quarterback Ryan Hilinski back but he will be less than 100% as he was barely able to put pressure on his sprained knee on the sideline during the game last week. Florida will bounce back from their loss at LSU and beat the Gamecocks by about two touchdowns.

NFL

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 22: Le’Veon Bell #26 of the New York Jets stiff arms Patrick Chung #23 of the New England Patriots during the first quarter in the game at Gillette Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

Record: 4-1

Chiefs @ Broncos 10/17 8:20 PM EST

Chiefs – 3

Despite the Chiefs having injuries to their defense and Patrick Mahomes likely being less than 100%, I still believe they can beat a below average Broncos team. History is also on their side as the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in seven straight games while covering the spread in six of them and winning five straight ATS in Denver.

Jaguars @ Bengals 10/20 1:00 PM EST

Jaguars -3.5

The Bengals must love how much attention the Dolphins are getting because they are just as bad. They are also down two cornerbacks and a safety this week which makes this a very good matchup for Minshew and the rest of this offense. I’d even go as far as saying this game has blowout potential. Jaguars with the points is my lock of the week.

Rams @ Falcons 1:00 PM EST

Rams -3

I am certainly not a believer in the Rams as contenders this year even with the addition of Jalen Ramsey, however, the Falcons are a very bad team with a very bad defense. The Rams have enough weapons to take advantage of the aforementioned very bad defense and win by a touchdown. I expect Jared Goff to bounce back from the worst game of his career with what could be one of his best with a matchup like this.

49ers @ Redskins 1:00 PM EST

49ers -9

I kind of think this is a generous line given that the Niners beat the Rams in LA by 13 and the Redskins are a much worse opponent. The Niners defense is going to have a field day with Washington’s abysmal offense. I’d be surprised if Washington is able to put double digits on the scoreboard in this one.

Patriots @ Jets 10/21 8:20 PM EST

Patriots -9.5

The first time these teams played, the spread was 22.5 points. Now it has dwindled all the way down to 9.5 which is likely due to Sam Darnold returning as well as recency bias. Yes, the Jets did beat the Cowboys last week but the Cowboys are not a good team. The media treats them like they’re a good team but they just aren’t. The Jets also did most of their damage in the first half last week, scoring 21 of their 24 before the halftime whistle blew. While the Patriots offense did not look great against the Giants last week, I expect them to play better against their division rivals. And there is no penetrating this New England defense. New England by 20.

Under 43

I missed the under in the Patriots game last week but the under in games for the team with the easiest schedule in the league is more often than not a valuable play. The Jets defense is also 11th in defensive points per drive meaning the Patriots might struggle slightly with moving the ball against them. I’d say this game has 17-3 or 21-7 written all over it allowing the Patriots to cover and for the game to hit the under as well.

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