If you followed me last week then you were up BIG. 100% of my cash game lineups were successful while all but one of my tournament lineups were in the green. I’ve also been avoiding posting Thursday night lineups because I haven’t liked the matchups but after selecting a winning cash game lineup I will start posting Thursday lineups. Looking ahead to week three all the chalk can be found in one matchup which will be used as a building block for cash games while I’m planning on fading that game for GPPs. Now let’s win some cold hard cash.
Games With the Highest Projected Point Totals
Baltimore @ Kansas City (O/U 52.5)
This is the chalkiest matchup we have seen so far this season. Due to cheaper players and a lack of depth for the Chiefs to go along with injuries in the backfield, I will be targeting Baltimore in this one but I wouldn’t fault anyone who would want to target Kansas City.
Houston @ LA Chargers (O/U 49)
NY Giants @ Tampa Bay (O/U 48)
UPDATE: Damien Williams has been ruled out for Week 3 making LeSean McCoy ($5,000) a plug-and-play selection for cash games if he is cleared to play.
Cash Game Lineup
QB Lamar Jackson $7,000
Lamar Jackson is featured in what could be the game of the week in a matchup against Kansas City and his Ravens enter the game as 5.5 point underdogs. Mahomes would be a good play here too but he’s the highest priced QB on this slate at $7,600. Jackson is the cheaper play here with the potential to have the same production as Mahomes. His projected 3.5X value is 24.5 while his actual projection is 22.6 which is almost a whole 2 points lower than his projected value but he’s outscored his projections by 16 and 13 respectively.
RB Saquon Barkley $9,100
Saquon is going to remain a chalk play until his price reaches $10,000. While he has been slightly under-performing so far this season you can’t risk not having him in your lineup at a reasonable price. Daniel Jones being named the starter is also in Barkley’s favor as the offense may rely heavily on RPOs which is part of an offense Shurmur wants to implement in New York. Barkley’s projected 2.5X value is 22.75 while his actual projection is 24.55. He is once again a valuable play as his projections are higher than his projected value.
RB Frank Gore $4,400
After spending up for the highest-priced RB and the highest-priced QB I had to go searching for some value for the second RB spot (I said almost the exact same thing last week but hey the strategy worked so I’m sticking to it). Gore ran the ball 19 times for 68 yards and a touchdown last week and most of this production came before Devin Singletary’s hamstring injury. Gore is in a spot where he can see 20+ touches again. Cincinnati is coming off a week where they allowed 259 yards on the ground to the Niners making this a juicy matchup for Gore with Singletary looking like he will sit out this week. His 2.5X value is 11 points while his projections are 11.06. I personally think he gets at least 15 this week but according to the numbers he is a valuable play nonetheless.
WR Marquise Brown $5,900
Hollywood Brown is the first part of my Ravens stack this week. In two weeks Brown has 12 receptions for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was also targeted by Lamar Jackson 13 time last week. At just $5,900 as Jackson’s favorite receiver so far Brown is poised for another big game in what could be a shootout. His projected 2.5X value is 14.75 while his actual projection is 14.28. He has outscored projections in each of the first two weeks and he easily could again against a below average Kansas City defense.
WR John Brown $5,500
John Brown, along with Saquon Barkley, have been in my lineup every week so far this season. He is yet to be anywhere close to being priced like the WR1 he is at just $5,500. He has 14 receptions on 18 targets with 195 yards and a touchdown to go along with it. His price has quickly risen from $4,300 in week 1 to $5,500 in week 3 which means there may come a time where I’ll have to let my beloved John Brown go but for now he remains valuable. His projected 2.5X value is 13.75 while his actual projected point total is 12.64. I’m ignoring projections a lot this week because the majority of these players have outscored projections every week so far.
WR Sterling Shepard $4,900
Shepard has cleared the concussion protocol and is good to go for week 3. He enters the game as the best receiver for the first game of the Daniel Jones era. Golden Tate is still suspended, Cody Latimer has a concussion, and Bennie Fowler and Darius Slayton are both dealing with hamstring injuries. Shepard is currently the Giants’ healthiest receiver meaning he should be in for a lot of targets this week. His projected 2.5X value is 12.25 while his actual projection is 13.63 making him a valuable play in this slate.
TE Mark Andrews $4,600
Mark Andrews has been the best fantasy tight end through the first two weeks of the season and $2,500 separates him from the top spot. Andrews might be the chalkiest play of the week meaning he might not hold much GPP value but he will be in all of my cash lineups. He’s had 16 receptions on 17 targets for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns through 2 weeks and I don’t expect him to slow down this week. His projected 2.5X value is 11.5 while his actual projection is 11.93 which he should exceed. Also, don’t worry about the questionable tag as he went through the same process last week.
FLEX Emmanuel Sanders $4,800
Draftkings has been handing us a gift with Sanders since the start of the season. Week 1 his stat line was 5-86-1 at a price of $5,500. His price may have been skewed because of the limited player pool due to a Monday night game but in week 2 he was still only $4,700 then he put up 11 receptions on 13 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown. After two monster performances he is still only $4,800 after emerging as Joe Flacco’s favorite target. His projected 2.5X value is 12 while his actual projection is 13.72. Even if he is half as good as he was last week he is a solid cash game play.
DST Patriots $3,800
The Patriots defense was a big reason why all but one of my cash game lineups were successful after scoring 37 points last week. I don’t expect the same performance by them but I do expect them to limit the Jets offense who are now on their third string quarterback. Their 2.5X projected value is 9.5 while their projection is 12.56. They are a very valuable play this week.
QB Dak Prescott $6,500
The Cowboys are matched up against the Dolphins at home this week and there a combination of things that make me love Prescott this week. The Dolphins could be the worst team of the decade or even century and they find themselves in another lopsided matchup against the high-powered Cowboys offense. Prescott also looks like a completely different quarterback under new OC Kellen Moore. I honeslty believe Prescott’s price should be comparable to Jackson and Mahomes this week but fortunately for us it’s not. His projection is 22.56 while his projected 4.5X value is 29.25 which is very attainable against the abysmal Dolphins.
RB Dalvin Cook $7,800
Cook is averaging 30.1 DKFP through two weeks so far and it seems like the Vikings gameplan will revolve around the running game especially with the Kirk Cousins has been playing. He’s totaled 311 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns so far and he is showing no signs of slowing down. Cook could also be a contrarian play because the raiders have only allowed 63 rushing yards so far this season but I’m deeming Cook matchup-proof. His projected 3.5X value is 27.3 while his actual projection is 19.4 but I wouldn’t be surprised if he flirts with 30 again.
RB Peyton Barber $4,600
Last Thursday, Barber logged 23 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown and it looks like he is now the clear-cut favorite in Tampa’s backfield. He is facing a Giants defense that has a number of issues so 20+ carries will yield a decent amount of production once again. His projection is 12.18 while his projected 3.5X value is 16.1 which is an attainable point total against a bad Giants defense.
WR Amari Cooper $7,500
I’m going with a Cowboys stack this week for my tournament lineup because of the favorable matchup against the Dolphins and because Cooper underperformed last week. Other players may fade Cooper because of the Cowboys’ balanced offensive approach but he is in a spot where he can score in bunches especially with Gallup sidelined. His projected 3.5X value is 26.25 while his actual projection is 19.51.
WR Chris Godwin $6,900
After saving his fantasy value with a touchdown in week 1, Godwin broke out in week 2 like the breakout receiver we all expected him to be. He hauled in 8 of 9 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. I expect his matchup against the Giants to provide similar numbers this week. This might be a chalky play and I try to avoid chalk in GPPs but Godwin’s ceiling is just too high this week. His projected 3.5X value is 24.15 while his actual projection is 16.78.
WR Emmanuel Sanders $4,800
See Cash Game Analysis.
Projected 3.5X Value: 16.8
Actual Projection: 13.78
TE Mark Andrews $4,600
See Cash Game Analysis.
Projected 3.5X Value: 16.1
Actual Projection: 11.93
FLEX Darren Waller $4,100
Waller is definitely Derek Carr’s second favorite option behind Tyrell Williams. So far, he’s had 13 receptions on 15 targets for 133 yards. Waller has been consistent the first two weeks of the season and his price definitely helps when spending elsewhere in the lineup. His Projected 3.5X value is 14.35 while his actual projection is 10.88.
DST 49ers $3,200
The Niners D put up 27 points in week 1 against Tampa Bay and I think they could be in another good spot hosting Mason Rudolph in his first NFL start. Their projected 3.5X value is 11.2 while their actual projection is 9.1.
As always feel free to tweak these lineups. Listen to me if you want to or don’t if you don’t want to, after all these are just suggestions.
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